fxmatters

The NZ economy has probably just experienced a recession, and slow domestic demand growth will make things tough in the second half as well. The next step is a less inflation pressure … Read Expecting the RBNZ to ease

This week we will be a little wiser as to whether we are in recession or not. We won’t actually know for sure but at least we will find out whether NZ output declined in the March quarter (we will have to wait until September to find out what happened in the almost-finished June quarter). The odds are that we have just experienced six months of recession. March quarter output is widely believed to have declined by 0.3%, and the June quarter appears to have been worse … Read After GDP

Just when it looked like the USD was on the ropes again, the referee came to the rescue with a warning that the US want a strong currency. And where the USD goes sets the platform for smaller currencies like the NZD … Read Feeding exchange rate habits

The one clear trend at present is higher oil prices. But different central banks are coming round to different views about the consequent inflation risk … Read NZD falling, AUD rising

We have come to a busy week. There are any number of events that could cause a sharp currency reaction, in either direction. And then there is the oil price
… Read The oil impact