fxmatters

The NZ dollar bounce did come, the trigger being the Budget. It could just have easily been news from the dairy sector, news that is still to come in the form of higher export earnings (due today) or a high 2008/09 payout (due sometime within the next month). Both are factors, along with the too-high inflation rate, that will hold back the RBNZ from easing in the next couple of months. Expectations of RBNZ rate cuts had simply become too great within the markets … Read Budgeting for currency movements

A plot of the NZD/USD last week resembles a crooked smile, down first then up again. It will no doubt be a little unsettling to exporters … Read The Australia influence

Two things changed that have increased the downside risk for the NZ dollar. There was further news of slower NZ growth. And there was a quick return to risk aversion offshore. The net effect was a NZD/JPY down 3.7%. But further falls rest on the timing of an RBNZ rate cut … Read Awaiting an RBNZ easing

It’s all over. Well that is what market activity and commentary would suggest last week. Global share indices generally rallied for the third week in a row. Gold is now 17% off its highs. Where are the downside risks? … Read A collective sigh of relief