fxmatters

• April – NZD/USD up over April in 8 of the last 10 years.
• 3 April 1973 – First portable cell phone call—now the Blackberry all but makes the coffee.
• 5 April 1976 – The Tiananmen Square Incident when protestors were driven from the Square—not a part of fx history but a anniversary to be wary of this year.

The US share market was stable – of sorts – and other share indices were up, so once again the US dollar weakened. But this time the NZ dollar is one of the laggards … Read More woeful tales to come

• 24 March 2000 – The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 1527.46 (since bettered but not sustained). The USD turned downward seven months later.
• 27 March 1980 – Silver price in freefall from the $52.50/ounce January peak engineered by the Hunt brothers. The 18% fall last week looks mild in comparison.
• 1 April 2004 – Germany has pulled out of the EUR for the GBP—a BBC hoax.

The US Fed rate cut and policy initiatives has turned the US share market around – for now. But now commodity prices are tumbling, and with them the AUD and NZD (in a more modest fashion) … Read Commodity prices tumble

• 19 March 1831 – City Bank becomes the first US bank to be robbed, by Edward Smith (alias Jones, alias James Smith).
• 22 March 1642 – France liberalises interest rates from the regulated, lower yields since 1601 (during which time credit had dried up as moneylenders withdrew, in contrast to today when the banking system enables accelerated credit growth when interest rates are lowered by regulation).

The woeful stories continue in the global financial markets. They are also becoming more prevalent in the local housing market. And yet the NZD pushes forward … Read What next to fall

• 10 March 2000 – after rising more than 110% in twelve months the NASDAQ Composite Index peaks and falls over 60% in the next twelve months; it remains 57% below that peak today while the USD is now 45% below the peak reached eight months later in Nov-00 against the EUR.
• 16 March 1830 – the dullest day on Wall Street when only 31 shares traded, amidst a downturn that started 6 years earlier.

There are no certainties in currency markets but sometimes the odds stack up against a currency more than usual … Read Time is ripe

• 3 March 1961 – US economist John Kenneth Galbraith’s words “one of the greatest piece of economic wisdom is to know what you do not know” is very apt when it comes to exchange rate forecasting.
• 5 March 1954 – The DJIA breaks 300 again—a mere 25 years after the first time!
• 8 March 2007 – First of four tightenings by RBNZ in 2007.

We face a raft of central bank meetings this week, and later this month. Each has the potential to surprise, not least because each will have to make their own judgment about the conflicting forces of higher inflation and lower growth. This makes for exchange rate uncertainty … Read After policy decisions