fxmatters

• 26 February 1797 – The BoE issues the first one-pound and two-pound notes.
• 26 February 1995 – UK’s oldest investment banking firm, Barings Bank, falls after Nick Leeson loses US$1.4 bill.
• 1 March 2002 – Spain’s peseta is replaced by the euro.
• March – NZD/AUD down in 14 of the last 20 years, including the last five.

It seems inevitable that the NZD/USD will make new highs this week in the lead up to central bank meetings in March. At present NZ is seen as one of the high inflation, high interest rate, high commodity price, moderate-to-high growth group of economies. However the ‘growth’ component will soon be questioned … Read Can we match Australia?

The greatest influence on the NZ dollar is the Australian dollar. The RBA’s comments last week has likely set the direction for the AUD for the next 2-3 weeks … Read AUD to drag NZD along

• 19 February 1785 – “The wisest prophets make sure of the event first” Horace Walpole—one must go a step further in fx markets and anticipate how others will react to a forecast event.
• 28 February 2007 – Shanghai share index down 8.8% on fears of tighter government policy; NZD/JPY drops 3.7%, the fourth largest 1-day NZD fall (vs major TWI currencies) in 2007.

• 13 February 1800 – Banque de France founded to restore faith in the French banking system—a task the French central bank again faces after the US$7 billion fraud within Societe Generale.
• 14 February 1966 – Australia adopts dollars & cents—at the time A$1 was worth US$1.12 (now US$0.90) and NZ$1 was worth A$1.24 (now A$0.88).
• 15 February 1971 – UK decimalised.

There was some hope that the G7 might be able to weave some magic on the weekend in the form of new coordinated policies to temper financial market concerns. They did not. They did warn, though, that more difficulties lie ahead … Read As the problems spread

• First 10 days of Feb – NZD/AUD has appreciated in 15 of the last 20 years.
• March quarter – NZD/AUD has depreciated in the last 5 years.
• 10 February 1969 – Indira Ghandi warned “in solving our problems, we should beware of creating worse ones”—a sentiment no doubt running through US Fed Governors’ minds at present.

• 29 January 2002 – President Bush refers to the Axis of Evil—Iraq, Iran and North Korea—in his State of the Union Address; some say the start of the USD decline.
• 1 February 1935 – British coins cease to be legal tender in New Zealand.
• 2 February 2006 – Groundhog Day when 6 more weeks of US winter was last predicted; “winter” looks like being long this year around Wall Street.

The NZD/USD pushes towards 80c again as the USD continues aggressive monetary policy easing. The NZD next move will depend largely on what happens offshore … Read USD poised on a knife-edge