fxmatters

• 6 November 2006 – first issue hits the streets of fxmatters.
• 14 November 1960 – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forms.
• 17 November 1919 – National City Bank (later Citibank) becomes the first US bank to exceed US$1 billion assets—but the president had to go. Now the writedowns run to billions & still the boss has to go.

The fragility of, and uncertainty surrounding, the financial system at present is evident with the apparent on again, off again approach to the carry trade. The last ten weeks have produced weekly NZD/JPY falls of 6.3% and now 3.8%, while in between provided weekly gains of 5.0% and 4.5%. It is a rocky path. And it is not over yet … Read Volatility from abroad

• November – the NZ dollar has appreciated the last 10 Novembers on a TWI-basis, ranging from +0.2% to 3.8%.
• 5 November 1990 – “When nobody wants something, that creates an opportunity” Carl Icahn buys into troubled Texaco.
• 5 November 2003 – RBA raise cash rate by 0.25% to 5.00% p.a.
• 8 November 2006 – RBA raise cash rate by 0.25% to 6.25% p.a.

It was the Fed last week. This week the spotlight turns to the RBA and the ECB. Both the AUD and EUR have rallied ahead of these monetary policy reviews. What is said will set the tone for the AUD and EUR, and hence NZD, in the next couple of weeks … Read Sell the fact

• 3 November 1907 – final Sunday in panic of 1907 when J. P. Morgan locked 125 financial executives inside until they supported the shakiest amongst them.
• 3 November 1997 – “Oil-price forecasters make sheep seem like independent thinkers. There’s no evidence that mineral prices rise over time. Technology always overwhelms depletion” Michael Lynch, a Scottish historian in BusinessWeek.

The US Fed is very likely to ease US monetary policy this week while the RBA could well raise Australia’s cash rate a notch the following week. The NZD is caught in the middle, especially with the RBNZ adopting a neutral tone … Read More carry on

• 23 October 1907 – J. P. Morgan acts to quell the Panic of 1907, sending suitcases of cash to meet the run on Trust Company of America and threatening to ‘crush’ big speculators who did anything to further depress stock prices (he later also asked religious leaders to preach calm).
• 24 October 1929 – Black Thursday begins the most devastating of all Wall Street crashes and of the Great Depression.

The news just keeps rolling in against the USD. A EUR at $1.45 looks very likely now. Maybe even higher. But the carry trade is also looking shaky. And the local growth rate is low. Which forces wins out? … Read Amidst the turmoil

• 15 October 1982 – President Reagan removes restraints on federally insured savings and loans companies—who ‘let loose’, eventually needing a $200b bailout.
• 19 October 1987 – DJIA drops 22.6%, second largest 1-day fall and NZ’s Barclays Index drops 14.7% the next day
• 21 October 1907 – the financial panic of 1907 nears full stride as stocks reach the lowest level since 1903.

While the NZD has been firming against the USD it is still significantly lower now than at the end of the previous quarter against many other currencies … Read Following the pack for now