fxmatters

Like most years, 2007 reminds us that currencies are volatile and that debt matters. These will again be key themes in 2008, especially the latter here in NZ. Thanks to those who helped with fxmatters in 2007. The next posting will be 21 January 2008 … Read Lessons of 2007

The Reserve Bank forecasts growth to be much the same in the next 3 years as the last three. And inflation to continue pushing against the 3% upper target band. As a starting point this suggests the NZ dollar repeats the very broad sideways trend evident since 2004. But then shocks can occur … Read When things don’t stay the same

Making money with NZD put options has not been easy. Over 80% of 6-month NZD/USD put options with a strike price 3 cents out-of-the-money would have expired worthless in the last three years, in spite of some large NZD falls at times. But that does not give the full picture. There were also times when enormous returns were possible. Spend $5000 on an NZD/USD 9c out-of-the-money put option in July and it could have been $80,000 in August. Some people did. There were also many weeks when opportunities were presented to at least double your money … Read Positioning for the new year