fxmatters

• 28 November 1988 – Robert Maxwell is quoted in Time as saying “money you haven’t earned is not good for you”.
• 2 December 1836 – “the almighty dollar” coined by the Philadelphia Star Ledger is not apt now (although the original quote was to money as an “object of worship”).
• December – the EUR/USD has continued the trend of November in 15 of 20 years; the trend in Nov-07 was up.

The key to future exchange rates is the extent of US subprime home loan losses. At present expectations are building for the worst, at least within the US, and are showing as a weak USD. The next wave of sentiment could prove more positive … Read Coming to the end.

• 21 November 1995 – Dow Jones Industrial Average tops 5000 for the first time. The market has not been so positive this November, being 4.6% down in 3 weeks.
• 22 November 1967 – Silver exceeds US$2.17 per ounce. Silver last week retreated sharply from over $15/oz.
• 25 November 1947 – NZ formally becomes independent from Great Britain—the NZD remains fixed to the GBP.

The NZD is being swept along amidst three major global forces at present, all of which have the potential for significant volatility ahead … Read Three of four forces in play

• 6 November 2006 – first issue hits the streets of fxmatters.
• 14 November 1960 – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forms.
• 17 November 1919 – National City Bank (later Citibank) becomes the first US bank to exceed US$1 billion assets—but the president had to go. Now the writedowns run to billions & still the boss has to go.

The fragility of, and uncertainty surrounding, the financial system at present is evident with the apparent on again, off again approach to the carry trade. The last ten weeks have produced weekly NZD/JPY falls of 6.3% and now 3.8%, while in between provided weekly gains of 5.0% and 4.5%. It is a rocky path. And it is not over yet … Read Volatility from abroad

• November – the NZ dollar has appreciated the last 10 Novembers on a TWI-basis, ranging from +0.2% to 3.8%.
• 5 November 1990 – “When nobody wants something, that creates an opportunity” Carl Icahn buys into troubled Texaco.
• 5 November 2003 – RBA raise cash rate by 0.25% to 5.00% p.a.
• 8 November 2006 – RBA raise cash rate by 0.25% to 6.25% p.a.

It was the Fed last week. This week the spotlight turns to the RBA and the ECB. Both the AUD and EUR have rallied ahead of these monetary policy reviews. What is said will set the tone for the AUD and EUR, and hence NZD, in the next couple of weeks … Read Sell the fact