fxmatters

• 3 November 1907 – final Sunday in panic of 1907 when J. P. Morgan locked 125 financial executives inside until they supported the shakiest amongst them.
• 3 November 1997 – “Oil-price forecasters make sheep seem like independent thinkers. There’s no evidence that mineral prices rise over time. Technology always overwhelms depletion” Michael Lynch, a Scottish historian in BusinessWeek.

The US Fed is very likely to ease US monetary policy this week while the RBA could well raise Australia’s cash rate a notch the following week. The NZD is caught in the middle, especially with the RBNZ adopting a neutral tone … Read More carry on

• 23 October 1907 – J. P. Morgan acts to quell the Panic of 1907, sending suitcases of cash to meet the run on Trust Company of America and threatening to ‘crush’ big speculators who did anything to further depress stock prices (he later also asked religious leaders to preach calm).
• 24 October 1929 – Black Thursday begins the most devastating of all Wall Street crashes and of the Great Depression.

The news just keeps rolling in against the USD. A EUR at $1.45 looks very likely now. Maybe even higher. But the carry trade is also looking shaky. And the local growth rate is low. Which forces wins out? … Read Amidst the turmoil

• 15 October 1982 – President Reagan removes restraints on federally insured savings and loans companies—who ‘let loose’, eventually needing a $200b bailout.
• 19 October 1987 – DJIA drops 22.6%, second largest 1-day fall and NZ’s Barclays Index drops 14.7% the next day
• 21 October 1907 – the financial panic of 1907 nears full stride as stocks reach the lowest level since 1903.

While the NZD has been firming against the USD it is still significantly lower now than at the end of the previous quarter against many other currencies … Read Following the pack for now

• 11 October 1990 – Oil hits a record US$40.42 per barrel.
• 12 October 1789 – France passes its first law allowing interest on loans, later set at 5% p.a. (civil) and 6% p.a. (commercial) with anything higher deemed usury.
• 13 October 1989 – The DJIA falls 190.58 or 6.9%, a big fall but not as large as some later in October over the years (8 of the largest 20 falls have been in October).

Share markets and risky currencies are rallying once more. But the IMF is warning against complacency. And the major fx banks predict a higher JPY, not lower. Something is not quite right with this picture … Read Yen still tipped to rally

• October – NZD/USD appreciated this month in each of the last six years. But this is also the month in the last 20 years to show the greatest NZD/JPY variation.
• 28 October 2004 – RBNZ raises OCR by 0.25%, and does so again 27 October 2005. In 2006 there was no change but instead the warning “monetary policy tightening cannot be ruled out, and any easing of policy remains a considerable way off”.

The NZD/USD is once again above 75 cents. This is not sustainable. But just what will trigger another fall? … Read Looking for triggers