fxmatters

• 24 September 1869 – Wall Street’s first Black Friday: the gold price tumbled when the US Treasury sold gold.
• 27 September 1560 – UK’s future as a finance centre was advanced when QE I proclaimed the debased coinage was to be reminted.
• December quarter – not typically a period of USD strength with the EUR/USD up an average 2.3% over the last 20 years.

So much for the lower NZ dollar, the NZD having bounced back very quickly. With the USD under pressure more NZD/USD upside is possible. Then it becomes a matter of relative growth rates … Read When growth rates slow

• 17 September 1917 – an early attempt at oil price control was the Achnacarry Agreement between the three largest oil companies.
• 19 September 1966 – economist Paul Samuelson writes “Wall Street indexes predicted nine of the last five recessions”.
• 23 September 1998 – 16 banks/brokers and the US government meet to arrange a LTCM buy-out.

The central banks around the world are in watching mode. For now the markets are relatively calm and the NZD is drifting higher. The RBNZ assume that the NZD will remain at current levels for three years. Of course that will never happen. The dollar will move, and move rapidly. Can you afford to wait and see which way it does go?… Read But can business take the risk?

• 11 September 2001 – attack on World Trade Centre in New York.
• 14 September 2003 – a Swedish referendum rejects adoption of the euro.
• 16 September 1992 – Black Wednesday when GBP is forced to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and devalue (providing an estimated US$1.1 billion profit to interests of George Soros).

The NZD continued to slide last week, noticeably falling below 85 Australian cents. The RBNZ will not necessarily want to see the NZD appreciate but inflation remains a key concern and the RBNZ will likely repeat its warning that the OCR is not about to be lowered anytime soon, except in case of global crisis, providing some support to the NZD … Read RBNZ unlikely to cut OCR soon

• 3 September 1929 – The DJIA closes at 381.17—and then never saw such a high level again for more than a decade.
• 5 September 1929 – US shares fall sharply (the ‘Babson’ break) after a speech by investment guru’s Roger Babson’s predicting a crash—he had said the same time in 1928, and 1927!
• 5 September 1935 – Morgan Stanley forced to split off from J. P. Morgan.

At times like this we turn to history to get some guide as to what happens next. The past suggests that the NZD would normally stop falling for a while now. But then, is today normal? … Read Under normal circumstances