fxmatters

• 2 Jan 1992 – the first President Bush says “we’re enjoying sluggish times, and not enjoying them very much”. Will we get to hear this again?
• 13 Jan 1404 – the English parliament passes the Act of Multipliers, prohibiting alchemy! No doubt a relief to gold buffs everywhere.
• 14 Jan 2000 – DJIA hits all-time peak of 11,722, not surpassed until September this year but this week bettered by 6.2%.

This year was definitely a year of two halves. Will this be repeated in 2007? One thing looks clear: 2007 will start with the NZ dollar strong … Read Outlook for 2007.

• 18 Dec 1972 – “Junk food”, that favourite of many dealing rooms, first appears in print, in Time.
• 25 Dec 1925 – Nomura Securities Company formed in Osaka.
• 27 Dec 1945 – 28 nations sign up to form IMF and World Bank.
• 29 Dec 2000 – 2650-year-old Greek drachma trades for last time. Originally worth a handful of arrows, it ended at EUR0.002935 (or 340.75 GRD per EUR).

The Governor of the Reserve Bank is running out of options. He will be raising the cash rate again unless some signs of slower demand growth emerge. This sets the NZ dollar up for quite a different Xmas to that of 2005 … Read “Xmas is coming. Take cover“.

• 5 Dec 1996 – Fed Chairman Greenspan ponders about “irrational exuberance” amongst investors. DJIA down 145 points in first half hour & USD down over 1% (although the DJIA did rise another 80% in the next 3 years).
• 6 Dec 1745 – the original Black Friday in financial markets, the three since being 1869, 1929, 1987 (and 2049?).
• 8 Dec 1995 – Computer & entertainment companies adopt “digital versatile disk” or DVD as the name of the next big thing.

The NZD/USD has broken higher. This is not a time for relaxing. Form a strategy that ensures you do gain from this windfall … Read “Lock in any windfalls“.

• 29 Nov 1990 – Confirmation of the “recession that Australia had to have”, as Treasurer Keating put it. And none since!
• 30 Nov 1982 – US Index of Leading Indicators mistakenly released at +0.6%, not +0.2%, prompting a large one-day Dow Jones advance.
• 2 Dec 1836 – the phrase the “almighty dollar” was coined by the Philadelphia Ledger – “the almighty dollar is the only subject of worship”.
• Dec – EUR/USD up in 15 of last 20 years (i.e. EUR as derived from DEM).

One of the consistent themes coming through from experts and textbooks alike is “have a strategy”. There are some simple “technical indicators” that can help with a strategy to cope with the eventual NZD fall … Read “Have a strategy for the next NZD fall“.

• 20 Nov 1923 - Germany’s hyperinflation ended abruptly when a new currency – the rentenmark – was introduced. The old reichsmark had gone from around 4:1 marks per USD in 1914 (at the time backed by gold) to 1,000,000,000,000:1 in 1923.
• 21 Nov 1995 - the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 5000 for the first time. Around 12,300 now, the 11-year compound average capital return is 5.8% p.a., below the 100-year average.

Hedge funds, private equity funds, oil prices – these are part of the big driving forces at present. What does this mean for currencies like the NZD and CAD? And how should you approach dealing with such risks? … Read “Awash with liquidity“.